Winnipeg James Armstrong Richardson International Airport is a critical air travel hub, serves as a major linkage in the domestic and international supply chain and logistics network, and generates an estimated $2.9 billion in direct economic output annually. In September 2020, the Province of Manitoba retained HM Aero and Landmark Planning and Development to provide a Noise Exposure Forecast Study for Winnipeg International Airport and a subsequent Comprehensive Planning Analysis and Recommendations Report.

The purpose of the Noise Exposure Forecast Study was to update the 1995 noise contours that informed the City of Winnipeg’s Airport Vicinity Protection Area (AVPA) Secondary Plan with independently prepared NEF contours. Forecasting the potential future activity at Winnipeg International Airport was critical to modelling how aircraft noise may impact surrounding land uses. Aircraft movement forecasts were prepared on an annual basis to 2050 to identify the traffic levels that were modelled in the 2033 and 2050 noise contours. The annual aircraft movement capacity of Winnipeg International Airport’s current two runway system was calculated to assist the Province in considering whether a new runway may be required to provide additional capacity within the 30-year horizon (2050). The project team generated 25, 30, 35, and 40 NEF contours for four scenarios: 2019 (baseline), 2033, 2050, and an ultimate scenario which considered the noise conditions at an indeterminate time in the future where a third runway is implemented, and the three-runway system operates at its maximum capacity.

The Province of Manitoba enacted a regulation that was informed by the NEF contours generated within HM Aero and Landmark’s study, directing the City of Winnipeg to update their AVPA Secondary Plan.